Bitcoin at $64,934: Grayscale Ties Bottom Call to Fed Rates, Not Halving Cycle

Bitcoin is changing hands near $64,934, down roughly 1.9% on the session, as asset manager Grayscale argues the cryptocurrency’s cycle bottom may already be behind it — not because of the traditional four-year halving pattern, but because of shifting Federal Reserve policy and real interest rates.

The claim reopens one of crypto’s oldest debates at a sensitive moment for holders watching BTC well off its highs: is Bitcoin’s price still dictated by its programmed supply schedule, or has it matured into an asset that trades on the same macro variables as stocks and bonds?

Two competing frameworks, two different bottoms

Under the traditional four-year cycle model, Bitcoin bottoms are driven by halving events. Historically, bear-market lows have arrived roughly one year after a cyclical peak and about two and a half years after a halving, with cumulative drawdowns averaging near 80% from the top. Applying that historical average to the current cycle would put Bitcoin’s bottom in September or October, implying further downside from current levels.

Grayscale takes the opposing view. The firm says Bitcoin has matured to the point where broader macroeconomic conditions — not the mechanical halving calendar — now drive its price action, similar to other major asset classes.

Why Grayscale points to the Fed

Grayscale notes that Bitcoin’s previous bear markets coincided with periods of slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates. It argues the current downturn has unfolded under similar conditions: shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy paired with elevated real rates.

Following that logic, the firm says Bitcoin’s price should find its floor once those macro conditions start to improve, rather than on a fixed timeline tied to the halving. Grayscale went further, stating that if the Fed refrains from additional rate hikes and economic growth stays resilient, Bitcoin’s price may have already reached its low — meaning the roughly 80% peak-to-trough decline implied by the four-year model would not be necessary this cycle.

What it means for holders

For traders, the divergence matters because it changes the reference point for risk. Four-year-cycle adherents are effectively pricing in further downside into the fall, while Grayscale’s macro thesis implies the worst could already be over provided the Fed holds its current stance and growth data stays firm.

Neither framework offers certainty, and Grayscale itself frames its call as conditional on Fed policy rather than a firm prediction. With BTC currently around $64,934, the coming Fed decisions and economic growth data — not the calendar since the last halving — are likely to be the variables markets watch most closely for confirmation of either scenario.

Sources

• cryptopotato.com
• decrypt.co