Bitcoin Near $78,700 as Fed Hike Odds Split 62%–90% Across Three Trackers

Bitcoin traded near $78,749 on Friday, up roughly 2% on the day and as high as $79,607 in New York morning trade, after data showed U.S. core consumer prices rose 0.3% in August, hotter than economists expected. A separate snapshot later in the session put BTC closer to $77,282, up a smaller 0.65%, a gap that reflects the minutes-apart timing of price captures rather than a reversal in the market.

Two of three reports reviewed agree on the core fact: headline annual inflation held near 3.4%, while the monthly core print came in hot enough to keep a Federal Reserve rate move next week firmly on the table. Where the reports diverge is on how likely that move is, and in which direction traders think it will go.

Three Trackers, Three Different Odds

One outlet cited CME FedWatch putting the probability of higher rates by next week at 85%. Another put the same figure near 90%. A third reported odds closer to 62%. None of these numbers is wrong on its face.

The CME FedWatch tool updates continuously as futures prices move, so a reading taken at 9 a.m. can differ meaningfully from one pulled at noon on a day when inflation data just landed. Treat each cited percentage as a timestamped snapshot, not a fixed consensus. Anyone building a trading signal off a single quoted probability should check the capture time before acting on it.

What Is Unusual: a Hike, Not a Cut

The setup itself is notable. Markets are debating a rate increase, not a cut, at a moment when bitcoin is still climbing. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who took over from Jerome Powell in January, has delivered zero rate cuts since replacing him, according to one report. In his first speech as chair last month, Warsh said he had “more work to do” to bring inflation down.

Two of the three reports tie the inflation pressure to the war with Iran, which has pushed oil prices higher and, in turn, lifted the cost of gasoline and food. Higher rates would normally squeeze the liquidity that has historically helped bitcoin rally, making this week’s price action, a gain despite hawkish signals, the part of the story that stands out most.

What Is Confirmed, What Is Not

Confirmed by at least two independent sources: the 0.3% monthly core CPI beat, the prospect of a Fed rate move at next week’s meeting, and bitcoin trading higher despite that prospect. Single-sourced and unverified elsewhere: the exact annual core CPI trend, the precise hike-odds percentage, and the specific BTC price level at any given minute, since each outlet captured its own snapshot.

The Federal Reserve meets next week to decide on interest rates. Whatever the odds tool shows on any given hour between now and then, the decision itself will be a single, unambiguous data point.

Read more: Bitcoin at $77,263, Ether at $2,512.60 as Traders Parse Mixed Inflation Print

Sources

• beincrypto.com
• bitcoinmagazine.com
• decrypt.co