Bernstein Keeps $140 Circle Price Target, Flags 59% Upside Without Clarity Act

Bernstein has reiterated its Outperform rating on Circle Internet Group and kept its price target at $140 a share, telling clients the stablecoin issuer’s growth trajectory can hold up even if the CLARITY Act stalls in Congress. The bank puts implied upside at 59% from current levels, which works out to a share price near $88.

Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani based the call on two data points: USDC’s circulating supply has turned back up after a period of contraction, and on-chain stablecoin transaction volumes keep expanding. Both trends, Bernstein argues, are running independently of whether US lawmakers pass comprehensive stablecoin market-structure legislation this year.

Why Bernstein decouples Circle from the CLARITY Act

The CLARITY Act has been treated by much of the market as a near-term catalyst for regulated stablecoin issuers, promising clearer rules for token classification and custody. Bernstein’s thesis breaks from that assumption.

The bank’s argument rests on demand fundamentals rather than legislative timing. USDC supply returning to growth signals fresh minting activity, a proxy for institutional and exchange demand for dollar-pegged liquidity. Rising transaction volumes point to USDC being used more, not just held.

Put together, Bernstein sees a business that scales with broader blockchain-based financial activity rather than one that needs a specific bill to unlock new revenue.

What the numbers mean for CRCL holders

A $140 target with 59% implied upside is a meaningful gap for a stock that has traded well below its post-IPO highs. For holders, the call signals that Bernstein’s conviction is not contingent on a single Washington vote, reducing one source of binary risk around the stock.

It is worth remembering this is one bank’s target, not a guarantee of price movement. Circle’s revenue is still tied heavily to USDC reserve income, which moves with interest rates and stablecoin market share against competitors.

Stablecoin backdrop

USDC remains the second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin by circulating supply, competing directly with Tether’s USDT for exchange and DeFi liquidity. A rebound in USDC issuance suggests Circle is regaining ground after supply had been shrinking, a trend Bernstein flags as central to its bullish stance.

Circle has not commented publicly on Bernstein’s latest note. The stock’s next test will be whether USDC supply growth and transaction volumes hold up through upcoming quarterly disclosures.

Sources

• coingape.com
• theblock.co