Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Turn Net Unrealized Loss as Price Holds Near $63,362

Bitcoin’s long-term holders — the cohort typically credited with the strongest conviction and lowest sensitivity to price swings — have slipped into a net unrealized loss, according to on-chain data flagged by CryptoQuant this week. The signal has historically shown up near major cycle bottoms, and it’s emerging as BTC trades around $63,362, roughly flat over 24 hours but down nearly 2% for the week.

The current price marks a decline of almost 50% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,080, set in October. CryptoQuant analysts describe the asset as now trading within its “Cost of Production” zone — a level historically associated with bear-market floors.

What the long-term holder data shows

The key metric is adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) for long-term holders (LTH), a gauge of whether investors who have held their coins the longest are sitting on paper gains or losses relative to their cost basis. That reading has now crossed into negative territory and sits below the broader market average.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV noted that “at each major cycle bottom, long-term holders were sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the broader market,” adding that “the current structure fits that pattern.” In practical terms, the cohort normally most insulated from volatility is currently under more unrealized stress than the market as a whole — a setup CryptoQuant links to the early stages of a bottoming process rather than a confirmed floor.

Gold rallies on CPI data, Bitcoin doesn’t

The bottom-signal chatter coincides with a divergence between Bitcoin and gold following July’s inflation print. Gold climbed after the data, while Bitcoin failed to follow, even as odds of a Federal Reserve pause reportedly climbed above 60% on the cooler-than-expected CPI reading.

That gap has revived debate over Bitcoin’s “digital gold” positioning: if lower inflation and rising rate-cut expectations are typically bullish for hard assets, Bitcoin’s muted reaction suggests traders are still treating it more like a risk asset than a safe haven, at least for now. Analysts covering the data caution that capitulation in the market may not be fully over even as bottoming signals accumulate.

Why it matters for holders and traders

For investors tracking on-chain signals, a negative LTH aNUPL reading below the market average has previously preceded periods of price stabilization, though CryptoQuant’s own framing treats this as an early-stage indicator rather than confirmation of a bottom. With Bitcoin down close to 50% from its October peak and hovering near estimated production-cost levels, the coming weeks of price action against Fed policy expectations will be closely watched for whether the “digital gold” narrative — and the bottom thesis — actually holds.

Read more: Bitcoin Whale Wallets (10,000+ BTC) Hit 90, a 6-Month High

Sources

• bitcoinmagazine.com
• beincrypto.com