Bitcoin Pinned Below $68.7K Cost Basis as Wallets Near 60M Milestone

Bitcoin was trading near $63,612 on August 13, still boxed inside the roughly $58,000-to-$68,000 range it has held since the start of June, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The firm points to a specific resistance level of $68,700 — the average cost basis of short-term holders — as the reason the rally keeps stalling before reaching fresh highs.

At the same time, Grayscale is highlighting a separate long-term metric: the number of Bitcoin wallets holding a non-zero balance is closing in on 60 million, a level the asset manager frames as evidence of record adoption even during the current downturn.

Short-term holders are underwater, and that matters

Glassnode’s weekly research note puts short-term holders — investors who bought BTC within the past six months — roughly 7.2% underwater on average. Their aggregate cost basis, or “realized price,” sits at $68,700, which the firm says now acts as a ceiling because underwater buyers tend to sell into any recovery just to break even.

“The cost-basis ladder frames the stalemate. Spot sits just above the Median Realized Price at $63.0K, the level that splits every coin’s cost basis down the middle, and below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $68.7K, the average entry of the market’s most recent buyers,” Glassnode wrote. “That cohort is underwater, which historically makes it quick to sell into recoveries, while the median level has absorbed every test from above for more than a month.”

Glassnode also flagged that nearly 9% of the entire circulating BTC supply carries a cost basis between $62,000 and $65,000 — a dense cluster of holders sitting right around current spot price, which helps explain why the median realized price near $63,000 has repeatedly held as support. Cointelegraph separately noted a 50-month trend line near $65,800 is compressing price action even further within the range.

Grayscale’s counterpoint: adoption keeps climbing

While the short-term chart shows a market pinned by recent buyers trying to escape losses, Grayscale’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, argues the bigger picture is one of accelerating structural demand. The firm says wallets with non-zero Bitcoin balances are approaching the 60 million mark despite the prolonged crypto winter that began last October.

“The Bitcoin bear market has not changed our expectation for rising Bitcoin adoption over time,” Pandl said. Grayscale points to three catalysts it expects to drive the next wave of demand, led by Bitcoin’s role as a scarce, store-of-value asset as investors look to hedge against currency devaluation and rising government debt.

U.S. fiscal debt, now nearing $40 trillion and having doubled roughly every decade regardless of which party controls Washington, is cited by Grayscale as a backdrop that could push more capital toward “digital gold” narratives over time.

Why it matters for holders

The two data sets tell holders different things over different time horizons. Near-term, Glassnode’s numbers suggest spot demand has been weak enough that a decisive break above $68,700 is unlikely until the underwater short-term cohort either capitulates or sees a genuine surge in fresh buying. Traders watching for a breakout above the current range should treat that level as the line in the sand.

Longer-term holders, meanwhile, may find more reassurance in Grayscale’s wallet-adoption figures, which describe a network still growing its user base even as price consolidates. Neither data point guarantees a specific price outcome, but together they frame the current market as one where structural growth and short-term positioning are pulling in different directions.

Read more: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Turn Net Unrealized Loss as Price Holds Near $63,362

Sources

• ambcrypto.com
• cointelegraph.com