RegulationAug 15, 2026

CLARITY Act Odds Sink: Galaxy Sees 10%, Polymarket Falls From 82% to Under 20%

Galaxy Digital cut its 2026 passage odds to 10% as Polymarket bettors slashed CLARITY Act odds from 82% to under 20%.

On-chain Analyst. Sophie reads wallets, flows and network

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CLARITY Act Odds Sink: Galaxy Sees 10%, Polymarket Falls From 82% to Under 20%

Galaxy Digital has cut its odds that the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act becomes law in 2026 to just 10%, down sharply from earlier estimates of 50% in late June and 75% in May. The pullback tracks a parallel collapse on prediction market Polymarket, where traders’ implied odds for the bill’s passage have fallen from 82% to under 20%.

The two figures — one from a Wall Street-facing crypto research desk, the other from a real-money betting market — point to the same conclusion: momentum behind the first comprehensive US digital-asset market structure bill has stalled badly since the summer.

A shrinking Senate window

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, laid out the math in a Friday X post: the Senate reconvenes on September 14, leaving lawmakers only about two to three weeks of working time before the year effectively runs out on legislative priorities. Unless a motion to proceed vote happens immediately upon return, Thorn said, the CLARITY Act would need to “dominate basically the entire working session” to have any real chance of clearing the chamber.

Cryptonews separately flagged September 15 as a date market participants are watching closely for signs of whether the bill can still move.

Ethics rules and stablecoin yield fights

Both Galaxy and prediction-market pricing reflect the same unresolved sticking points. Lawmakers still have to settle ethics rules governing government officials’ involvement in crypto, an issue that has dogged the bill’s progress in the Senate.

Banks are also pushing back on provisions that would let crypto firms offer stablecoin yields without the same regulatory requirements banks face — a fight that has kept most Senate Democrats and the banking lobby opposed since the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May.

Odds have been sliding for months

Galaxy’s estimate has been on a steady downward path: 75% on May 22, cut to 60% on June 6, then to 50% on June 26, and now down to 10%. The trajectory shows a bill that once looked like a near-lock losing ground with every passing month as political friction accumulated.

The industry has not stayed quiet during the slide. In early June, more than 200 crypto companies and organizations signed a letter, shared by lobby group Stand With Crypto, urging the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act. That pressure campaign has not been enough to move the needle so far, according to both Galaxy’s model and Polymarket’s crowd-sourced pricing.

Why it matters for holders

The CLARITY Act would be the first US law to formally define which digital assets fall under securities versus commodities rules, a distinction that has shaped enforcement actions and exchange listings for years. A further slide in passage odds signals that market structure clarity — and the regulatory certainty many institutional allocators say they are waiting for — is unlikely to arrive before 2026 closes out.